10 Jan YouTube Video Notes: G7FX In Depth US Crude Oil Analysis and Fully Audited Stats Review Part 2
On to November and December MYFXBook stats.
It’s sad the way people pose questions to me on occasions about my stats. So, I want to firstly acknowledge the 99% of you who are very polite and if you’ve got questions you ask me in a constructive way.
I always give answers when I can, obviously time permitting, but what I notice sometimes especially as G7FX has grown is a lot of people saying “Hey what were you doing in November and December?” I bet you blew up.
It’s complete garbage. I mean can’t they just wait for January for me to actually get five minutes because I don’t actually have time to do videos every single day. This is the first opportunity I’ve really had to do a proper video for YouTube in a few weeks.
So, it’s the first opportunity I’ve really had to get into the details and, as always, I’ve got the stats I can show. The point is that I want to give those of you that are quite serious about this a proper insight into what was going on in my mind in December and why I was able to navigate it when so many people were having disastrous months.
How do I avoid that? Well firstly I don’t trade when I don’t need to but more importantly, I’m aware of political and event risk throughout the year. March, as many of you know, I said I’m not trading; I knew that coronavirus was there. There was a lot of heightened range in the market. If you look at the distribution of normal ranges, we were at three to four standard deviations. Very unusual so I didn’t trade at all.
Whilst I didn’t see that type of elevation of ranges in November/December what I did notice or what I had in my mind was that there’s a lot of elevated news coming out. When I say elevated, I mean relative to what is coming out in a normal month or a normal week. In a normal month or week, we’ve got things like payroll jobs data, inflation data and so on. Normal things to deal with that the market kind of easily brushes aside; you don’t have election risk to deal with every year.
It’s quite an unusual risk to come up so you’ve got to be aware of it. Granted Brexit has been around for several years, but it’s gone quiet. Recently, it’s been at the forefront because the deal was about to be done at the end of December. Obviously, come what may, by law the United Kingdom was coming out of the EU on the 1st of January.
Then finally with the vaccine news we had a long period of time where there was a lot of speculation about the vaccine, but people were talking about a vaccine maybe being produced at the end of 2021. Then all of a sudden in December we had news saying hey it could be a lot sooner.
So, can you see? It suddenly became relevant. So, I know I’ve talked a lot but look to me this is really important. Trading isn’t a game. I see a lot of people say “Hey, you just get up in the morning and you do this, and you make money.” No! There’s a lot of thinking involved. A lot of analysis. Maybe not written down analysis but you know just doing a lot of thinking and doing it in a sort of slow manner so that when you do take a trade it’s a calculated risk.
At the end of the day, we all know trading is a risk but it needs to be calculated. You need to put more thought into it and have more discussions. Sometimes I’ll talk to people about these items and say “Hey, what do you think?”, but I won’t let it affect my trading.
It’s something that I think everyone should be doing and that’s why I’ve put this video together because hopefully it gives you some ideas around how you can also in the future have a think about these items.
So how did I actually navigate these items and what was going on in my head?
Find out in Part 3.